|

Time to short TSLA?

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-17/chinese-electric-car-...

“Chinese electric-car maker NIO has launched sales of its first vehicle three years after the company was founded, undercutting the price of a rival model from Tesla Inc.”

“Chinese customers can buy the ES8 sports utility vehicle, with a range of 500 kilometers (311 miles) on a single charge, for 448,000 yuan ($67,783), the company said late Saturday in Beijing. That compares with 836,000 yuan for Tesla’s Model X, and 596,300 yuan for BMW’s gasoline-powered X5.”

My prediction: Tesla is not going to be a car company in five years; they will just make other battery products. They deserve credit for taking risks that no one else wanted. However, they don’t actually have any technology that other companies can’t reproduce and or do better. 

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
- Everyone

Disclosure: Long Tesla.

Same could have been said about AAPL and Xiamoi

I had a long post typed out, but it was dumb. Let’s just say I think your prediction has merit.

RIP bchad - the long-winded peacemaker of AF

Yes, hopefully I am wrong. However, Tesla has one difference, which is that they are good big to run out of money soon unless 1) they suddenly increase production by some order of magnitude, or 2) Musk convinces investors to throw even more money at him, which is also not impossible. However, in light of all these new competitors, will people eventually seek a better ROI elsewhere?

“Visit the Water Cooler forum on Analyst Forum. It is the best forum.”
- Everyone

ohai wrote:

Yes, hopefully I am wrong. However, Tesla has one difference, which is that they are good big to run out of money soon unless 1) they suddenly increase production by some order of magnitude, or 2) Musk convinces investors to throw even more money at him, which is also not impossible. However, in light of all these new competitors, will people eventually seek a better ROI elsewhere?

Tesla hype seems greater than any issues right now.

"It is a rational thesis that we are all within a dream; it will be a mystical sanity to say that we are all awake." - G. K. Chesterton

This will have 0 impact on TSLA over the next 3 years at least. The China car manufacturing industry is very fragmented and a vast majority of domestic autos goes to tier 3 cities. It’s not about tech, it’s about branding and quality control even within China. There are many Lexus/Infiniti/BMW clones that look and perform very close to the real thing, but any middle-upper class person in a tier 1 city wouldn’t be caught dead driving one of them. Even the presence of more established brands like BYD is pretty much reserved for taxis in tier 1 cities.